2008 and 2004 Presidential Exit Poll Discrepancies Compared

Dan Ashby — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 11:25:30 -0500

Introductory Summation:

In 2008 the exit poll discrepancy was considerably smaller than in 2004, but it was still well outside the margin of error. I won’t calculate an exact number, since we don’t have all the data yet. But it’s safe to say that the difference is very unlikely to be explained by chance alone. The fact that pre-election polls provided an estimate very similar to the exit polls in 2008 (The Obama lead was a little bit less in the pre-election polls, but it was surging upwards in the last couple of days, so probably the two were about equivalent) makes it even more likely that they were both accurate.

So that leaves two possibilities: Exit poll bias (and pre-election poll bias as well) or impaired election integrity – that is, election fraud.

. . . .

Consequently, EDA undertook an effort yesterday to capture exit poll statistics from all major statewide races (President, Senator, and Governor) prior to “adjustment” of the statistics to match the official election results (Once the statistics are “adjusted” to match the official election results they are worthless for the purpose of assessing the exit poll discrepancy because the “adjustment” erases the discrepancy.)

. . . .

"What all this means is that, as in 2004, the Democratic candidate performed much better in exit polls than in the official vote count, and the difference was especially large in critical swing states."

To read the complete article, click here

Work-from Home Volunteers to Help Document '08 Elections

Dan Ashby — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 16:13:59 -0500

Action of the Day

Monday 11.17.08

Working from your home computer, here's how you can help with EDA Election '08 exit poll and monitoring projects.

We currently have 3 projects to choose from.

1. Entering exit poll questionnaires into a database entry form.

2. Researching voter turnout in conjunction with the exit poll project.

3. Entering election monitoring reports for Save-R-Vote.

In all cases we will provide you a coordinator contact, easy instructions, and an estimate of how much work/time is involved.
You choose how much time you can put in.

Follow the "Read more" jump link for details and contacts.
Click the "E-mail this page" link to forward this request to others.

Presidential Turnout Flat in 2008: How Did that Happen?

Michael Collins — Sat, 08 Nov 2008 00:18:39 -0500

2008 Presidential Turnout Flat -- How Did That Happen?

By Michael Collins

(Wash. DC) In 2004, we were told to anticipate a red versus blue election. It didn't turn out that way but that was hardly mentioned.

By 2008, we were told to expect record voter turnout for the presidential election. Now we're told that the predictions were wrong, the pictures of long lines, massive early voting, and massive registration increases all went to produce just about the same vote total as reported for 2004.

The 2004 vote total was 122 million compared to 105 million in 2000. We're left with this question. With all the excitement and effort plus a huge funding advantage for Obama, how is it that the voters going to the polls were about equal in number for 2004 and 2008?

Here are some of the headlines:

Voter turnout approaches some records, breaks others, Harvard Gazette, Nov. 6, 2008, Thomas E. Patterson, Harvard Kennedy School

"Judging from past experience, however, it would appear that roughly 134 million Americans voted in the 2008 general election - a 65 percent turnout rate."

This estimate is 10 to 12 million votes over the actual count. But that difference is is minor compared to the projection of Infoplease which estimated 148 million voters on Nov. 4, 2008.

Unprecedented Latino Voter Turnout Plays Critical Role in Early Outcome of the Presidential Election, Market Watch Nov. 5, 2008

Tell the President-Elect: We Want Paper Ballots

Dan Ashby — Sun, 09 Nov 2008 14:52:28 -0500

Barack Obama's Transition Team is calling for public input on what direction the US should go in.

1. Go to http://change.gov/page/s/yourvision and let the President-Elect know what the people want and need from our government.

2. Please forward this email to everyone you know. [Click the "E-mail This Page" link at the foot of this article].

If they hear from millions of us, it will make a difference!

EDA Communications group member Dale Axelrod (originator of the Paper Ballot Platform Plank) presents this recommendation:

Support Legislation for PAPER BALLOTS

Since we've recently had elections with very slim margins, no undocumented totals should be relied upon in presidential or congressional voting. All across the country, instances of paperless, electronic touch-screen (DRE’s) voting machines’ losing, misdirecting, or miscounting large numbers of votes has been well-documented. In the interest of ensuring auditable and trustworthy election results:

PLEASE support immediate passage of ELECTION REFORM legislation requiring that paper ballots replace paperless, touch-screen voting systems in time for the November 2010 congressional elections.

Trust in elections is central to trust in government. Only with a tangible, paper ballot can voters have confidence that there is something to count.

Complete Details with Live Links at: http://www.paperballot.info/

EVEP Election Day Report

Dan Ashby — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 15:35:10 -0500

EVEP Election Day Report, 11/6/2008 12:05:00 PM

The Election Day Phase of the November 4 Election Verification Exit Poll

Election Defense Alliance and partners Election Integrity.org and The Warren Poll have completed the exhaustive Election Day phase of the 2008 Election Verification Exit Poll. With 350 interviewers, we conducted exit polls in 70 precincts in 12 states, covering these precincts with extraordinary thoroughness, approaching every exiting voter in many polling places, and in many cases generating response rates of 75 percent or higher.

This is the strongest data ever collected both for detecting election fraud and determining the efficacy of exit polling as a means for determining how voters actually cast their ballots.

Two election officials in Ohio tried to prevent us from conducting our polls, but a legal effort led by EI general counsel, Bob Fitrakis prevailed, permitting us to poll every site we selected. Some election officials refused to post the official outcomes. In at least one Florida polling site, this occurred explicitly because we had conducted our poll there. That said, most election officials were helpful and fully supportive, some even offering official support in following up any indication of a corrupted count.

The margin in the presidential election was too decisive for possible fraud to affect the outcome, but this was not true in all of Tuesday's races. Suspicious patterns were also revealed within the presidential race. We are currently analyzing the data and will post findings as they unfold.

* * * * * * *

Open Letter to the Media: Don't Print as True What You Can't Prove

Dan Ashby — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 02:57:43 -0500

The following Open Letter to the Media is an ongoing campaign to change the way the newsmedia thinks and reports about the inherently unverifiable nature of the U.S. electoral system.

We are asking the Fourth Estate to consider their obligations to verify what they report as fact to the public, and to acknowledge that in the case of U.S. election results, they have no basis for doing so.

We are asking reporters to seriously question their responsibility for perpetuating an illusion of democracy when the vote-counting process is hidden, unobservable, and unaccountable to the public.

We are asking journalists to change news culture by signing on to this letter and sending it to their journalistic peers.

Everyone can participate by sending this letter to the editorial departments of newspapers, news magazines, radio and television news departments, and to individual reporters.

====================

We Do Not Consent - Open Letter To The Media
A Public Media Campaign Launched By Dave Berman of We Do Not Consent

SEND THIS LETTER AS AN E-MAIL TO YOUR MEDIA

Dear Media Colleagues,

You are receiving this message because you are known to American progressives as a truth-teller. In this presidential campaign, despite the typical horse-race coverage, we also see the overall corporate media narrative influenced by daily debunking efforts from candidates’ rapid response teams, the blogosphere, and the reality-based coverage and reporting that you provide. We need to take this to the next level.

There are three very simple basic facts about the way US federal elections are conducted now, and we think they lead to an inescapable conclusion that must be addressed. See if you agree:

1. We have secret corporate vote counting computers counting more than 95% of the votes cast in the United States;

2. The absence of paper ballots, and in some cases state’s law, prevents meaningful re-counts throughout much of the country;

3. These electronic voting machines frequently produce results impossible in a legitimate election, such as John Kerry’s negative 25 million votes in Youngstown, OH (Nov. 2004), or Palm Beach County’s 12,000 votes in excess of the number of voters (Aug. 2008).

To us this suggests the conclusion that federal election results are unprovable, even though the media reports them as fact. Can you draw any other conclusion?

Election Protection, Voter Reports, and Direct Action Links

Dan Ashby — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 12:42:48 -0500

Were You Looking for Something?

. . . Like Exit Poll Analysis? Try Here

VOTING

Where Is My Poll Site?
http://www.vote411.org/pollfinder.php

Caution on Provisional Ballots
Most at risk: OH AZ FL CA CO WI IN MI
http://www.demos.org/pubs/provisionalballot_brief.pdf

ELECTION INCIDENT REPORT SYSTEMS (EIRS)

National Election Protection Hotlines
1-866-OUR-VOTE

1-866-MY-VOTE-1

VOTER STORY Online Incident Report Form Fill out form in side bar, at RIGHT >>>>>>>>>>>>>

CNN Incident Report System

EDA Poll Incident Report Form at right>>>>>>>>>
Download Incident Report Form

ELECTION MONITORING

4 Actions to Protect the Count

How-to Videos

Protect the Count Instructions
and Download PDF

Wake Up and Save Your Country Voters Guide

Poll Monitoring Guide by Count the Vote/VotersUnite

ELECTION DAY DIRECT ACTION

4 Actions Anyone Can Do to Protect the Count

Dan Ashby — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 00:41:37 -0400

NEW Black Box Voting videos added: Actions 2, 3, 4 -- See Below

WHAT TO DO ON ELECTION NIGHT - Protect the Count!

"Plan to be out in the field for 90 minutes on Election Night."
While everyone's watching the VOTING, not enough people are watching the COUNTING!

Black Box Voting was asked by YouTube to prepare an easy-to-follow plan to Protect the Count on election night and the days that follow. In collaboration with Videothevote.org, Election Defense Alliance, and YouTube, Black Box Voting has created a YouTube channel called Video Your Vote. This Protect the Count video series contains important information and several video clips never before made public.

Every citizen needs to take initiative to protect the count. Actions vary according to the counting system used in your location.

EASY INSTRUCTIONS:

1. View the 4 Protect the Count videos on this page and choose the action that best matches the voting system used in your locale.
2. Then read and download the complete Protect the Count action descriptions and instructions here:
http://www.ElectionDefenseAlliance.org/Protect

Action 1. Video the Precinct Tally Tapes (4 min)

This action applies to most locations in America, and is the most important thing you can do to Protect the Count.
The printed poll tally tapes show the voting machine vote totals BEFORE they leave the polling place. If citizens record the tally tapes as shown in this video, it will kick the legs out from under man-in-the-middle server substitution attacks.

This video moves a mile-a-minute, so be prepared to hit the "pause" button for a closer look.

This Precinct Poll Tape action takes 90 minutes on Election Night. Go to your local polling place and make a video record of the precinct tally tapes posted on the poll doors at close of election. Then upload your videos to http://videothevote.org
Post links or comments for what you find in the state and jurisdiction folders at http://www.blackboxvoting.org

If you live anywhere in America that has polling place results tapes, please also watch video # 3 (below) which shows what to look for to identify tampered poll tapes and the kinds of small errors on tapes that can appear with memory card tampering.

Continue reading for Parts 2, 3, and 4 of the Protect the Count self-directed election monitoring plan.

Please distribute immediately and as widely as you can.

You can easily E-Mail this page by clicking the "E-mail Page" link at at the foot of this article.

read more

Connell, "Ghost in Machine," Deposed in OH 04 Election Inquest

Dan Ashby — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 17:18:14 -0500

Source: RAW STORY, 11/03/08
http://rawstory.com/news/2008/Scarborough_warns_ghost_in_machine_could_1...

Scarborough Warns 'Ghost in the Machine' Could Upset Obama Victory

The Ghost in our Election Machine might well be a man named Michael Connell, or one of his colleagues. What this article does not mention is the fact that Connell is an advisor to the McCain Campaign and Karl Rove's top IT guru.

Michael Connell was deposed [Monday] in Columbus, Ohio by Cliff Arnebeck, lead lawyer in the civil lawsuit King-Lincoln Bronzeville Neighborhood Association v. Brunner (Blackwell).

This news story was covered in national news by Amy Goodman on Democracy Now and Thom Hartmann on Air America. Transcripts and mp3s should be available at their respective websites. News from the deposition which began at noon today is expected soon.

Connell was first subpoenaed in the case in after Stephen Spoonamore, a renowned cyber-sleuth and information security expert, came forward as an expert witness.

On Democracy Now this morning, Mark Crispin Miller, a professor of media culture and communication at New York University and author "Loser Take All: Election Fraud and The Subversion of Democracy, 2000–2008" described Spoonamore as

"…a very unusual and particularly unimpeachable kind of whistleblower. He is a conservative Republican. He is a former McCain supporter, but above all he is renowned and highly successful expert at the detection of computer fraud. He works for big banks, he works for foreign governments, the Secret Service, his job is to figure out how computers are used to steal money or information, or votes."

What You Can Do to Defend Election '08

Dan Ashby — Mon, 01 Sep 2008 06:16:13 -0400

EDA_Election Protection Action Page

Participate in the Long-Term, Year-Round Campaign for Election Integrity (Overview)

Protect Your Own Vote: Verify Your Voter Registration

Sign up for Election Verification Polling (Citizen Exit Polls)
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/evp

Be Prepared to Protest Suspect Election Returns
Code Orange Rapid Response Demonstrations

Choose Your Own Election Day Action Plan

Learn How to Gather Election Evidence

Download, read, and share the 2008 Citizens' Toolkit from Black Box Voting
http://www.blackboxvoting.org/toolkit.html

Check Updates at the Action of the Day

Choose Your Role in Election Day Rapid Response: A Six-Part Plan to Defend the Vote

Join the I-Count Corps to Hand-count Paper Ballot Elections
http://electiondefensealliance.org/count/signup.php

Write a Letter to the Editor (or your Representative)
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/let_people_count

Find and Join a Local Election Integrity Group Near You
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/Regional_EI_Directory

Participate in an EDA Working Group on a Subject of Your Interest
http://www.electiondefensealliance.org/workinggroups

Subscribe for E-mailed EDA Alerts and Announcements

Donate Financial Support
http://electiondefensealliance.org/Donate

2008 and 2004 Presidential Exit Poll Discrepancies Compared

Introductory Summation:

"What all this means is that, as in 2004, the Democratic candidate performed much better in exit polls than in the official vote count, and the difference was especially large in critical swing states."

Work-from Home Volunteers to Help Document '08 Elections

Action of the Day Monday 11.17.08

Presidential Turnout Flat in 2008: How Did that Happen?

2008 Presidential Turnout Flat -- How Did That Happen?

Tell the President-Elect: We Want Paper Ballots

Barack Obama's Transition Team is calling for public input on what direction the US should go in.

EDA Communications group member Dale Axelrod (originator of the Paper Ballot Platform Plank) presents this recommendation:

Support Legislation for PAPER BALLOTS

EVEP Election Day Report

The Election Day Phase of the November 4 Election Verification Exit Poll

Open Letter to the Media: Don't Print as True What You Can't Prove

We Do Not Consent - Open Letter To The Media A Public Media Campaign Launched By Dave Berman of We Do Not Consent

SEND THIS LETTER AS AN E-MAIL TO YOUR MEDIA

Election Protection, Voter Reports, and Direct Action Links

Were You Looking for Something? . . . Like Exit Poll Analysis? Try Here

ELECTION INCIDENT REPORT SYSTEMS (EIRS)

ELECTION MONITORING

ELECTION DAY DIRECT ACTION

4 Actions Anyone Can Do to Protect the Count

WHAT TO DO ON ELECTION NIGHT - Protect the Count!

"Plan to be out in the field for 90 minutes on Election Night." While everyone's watching the VOTING, not enough people are watching the COUNTING!

EASY INSTRUCTIONS:

Action 1. Video the Precinct Tally Tapes (4 min)

Please distribute immediately and as widely as you can.

Connell, "Ghost in Machine," Deposed in OH 04 Election Inquest

What You Can Do to Defend Election '08

Action of the Day

Monday 11.17.08

We Do Not Consent - Open Letter To The Media
A Public Media Campaign Launched By Dave Berman of We Do Not Consent

Were You Looking for Something?

. . . Like Exit Poll Analysis? Try Here

"Plan to be out in the field for 90 minutes on Election Night."
While everyone's watching the VOTING, not enough people are watching the COUNTING!